After a bit of fruitless searching, Dave Odom may be about to take the Virginia job.

edit: Or not, as the case may be.

I would be a little surprised if he did, having heard a rumor 2-3 weeks ago that he had politely expressed no interest. Odom has only been at South Carolina three years, plus he is 63 years old.

On the other hand, he has been successful at Wake and South Carolina, and is a class guy all around. We could do a lot worse. But at his age we need him to mentor a top notch assistant to take over when he retires.

So the other rumors lately have involved:

1) John Calipari. He has a less than 100% clean past, but is in Memphis where big UVa donor's John Paul Jones and Paul Tudor Jones live. A possible connection, but a real longshot in my book.

(There's also the rumor in that story that former ACC head of officiating Fred Barakat went to sell Barnes on the UVa job. That sounds more like an April fool's joke than anything else, given Barnes' conflicts with ACC officials while at Clemson.)

2) Dave Leitao. I still don't know much about this guy, except he has UCONN connections. UVa president John Casteen used to be at UCONN and may be getting some info on him.

3) Tubby Smith apparently isn't interested. Expect a more firm denial from him on Wednesday or Thursday (after news from the championship dies down a little).

How to tell you're having a bad business trip:

You gave yourself two hours extra to get there. Your flight ends up three hours late.

Spring just started, and it is sleeting and snowing kinda bad.

The customer started his migration work without you.

You told him ahead of time to make sure he had the right software for the upgrade, and who to get it from.

He doesn't have the right software for the upgrade.

He does everything out of order, which scares the hell out of you.

The backup copy of the software on your laptop is corrupt.

The backup backup copy of the software is on an FTP site.

The customer can't FTP to the outside world.

After the host is up and running again, you ask the DBA to check the databases. He says "This doesn't look good..."

You call the hotel nearby to ask if they had rooms. They do.

You walk two blocks through freezing snow to the hotel.

They don't.

You call the other hotel to see if you can get your reservations transferred.

You can't.

You call a taxi to take you to the other hotel.

The taxi says "RAPIDO!" on the side.

The driver misses the interstate exit for the other hotel, and PUTS THE CAR IN REVERSE TO BACK UP TO IT.

You run into a bunch of Japanese stewardesses at the hotel. They're checking out.

The Harlem Globetrotters are checking in.

All the hotel restaurants are closed, it's too late and snowy to find a place to eat.

You sit down at the bar, there are fourteen people and one bartender.

Twenty minutes later, you get your first drink.

You just met a new buddy at the bar. His drinking tab comes to $60+.

Your dinner consists of two rum and cokes and an orange Fanta.

You're writing this at 1:45 AM and you have to get up before 7.

Virginia coaching search update #1. This is going to be a slow moving story for a few weeks.

Guys We Really Want but Probably Can't Get: Tubby Smith and Rick Barnes have both stated they're happy where they are. This isn't saying much, nothing really has changed in our chances. Mike Montgomery issued a strong denial, he's out. Carlisle was never in it.

Guys We Really Want and Can Get: I don't know exactly who fits this description.

B-list: West Virginia is in the sweet 16, and John Beilein is a hot name right now. As soon as they lose, we'll hear something pretty quickly. Possibly the B-list frontrunner?

Wild card Iavaroni has publicly stated he would be interested in the job, and some have said Virginia is working on contingency plans should he have to complete the NBA season before starting as head coach.

If we can't get Barnes or Smith, Beilein and Iavaroni might be the most likely candidates.

The insider who said he heard we landed our "top target" has recanted. Nothing malicious, just bad info at the wrong time. I have a feeling that a lot of rumors are starting to feed back on themselves, makes it harder to believe what you hear. The search continues.

The candidates for the Virginia basketball head coach are pretty well listed here by the Daily Press' Dave Johnson. Go read that, then come back to see my few mild disagreements.

The "A list" as he calls it might better be called "pipe dreams". It would be huge news if any of these guys took the job. I would expand the list to include these names: Kentucky coach Tubby Smith, Texas coach Rick Barnes, Golden State (NBA) coach Mike Montgomery, and Indiana (NBA) coach Rick Carlisle.

Carlisle is a Virginia grad and a well respected coach. But he transferred in for only two years, his ties are not as strong to the school. He is an NBA guy making huge money and just starting to make his mark. Unless Virginia is his dream job, and no one has ever hinted at that, he won't come.

The "B list" should include Boston University head coach Dennis Wolff, Creighton coach Dana Altman, Marquette coach Tom Crean, Depaul coach Dave Leitao, West Virginia coach John Beilein, and Davidson coach Bob McKillop.

Everyone else Johnson listed would be distant longshots at best.

There may be other names on the B list that have not been listed. For instance, Tom Moore is intriguing because Virginia President John Casteen hired UCONN coach Jim Calhoun there. But he's a name that just came up, another longshot.

There have been a couple of rumors from well connected insiders on the Edge board at The Sabre. (I don't want to post full direct quotes since it's a subscriber board, and because of the sensitivity of the job search. I'm probably overly cautious but oh well.) One very well respected poster has heard we landed our "top target":

I still can't believe it and won't until I see it in an official press release.

Another poster added today that we would go all out and are focused on "one candidate only".

I would be very surprised if the one top candidate is not one of the four names I mentioned on the "A list" above, most likely either Barnes or Smith.

My gut feeling is that while I slightly prefer Smith, Barnes is the more realistic choice.

Just getting into blogging? Here are some resources that can help:

Amazon Honor System. Get donations to pay for your site.
Amazon Associates. Earn referral cash. I have a search bar (mostly for my own use), and will link to books, games, and DVDs that I review or recommend.
Paypal donations.
Stat counter. I put a block of javascript on each page to count hits.
Google Adsense. Personally, I hated having ads on my blog so Adsense didn't last long here. But some people are making some money from it.
Blogads. I hear Blogads also are a money maker.
MyBlogLog. Track where people click on your blog with javascript.
Feedburner. Allows you to track visitors, also allows you to improve your RSS feed.
Bloglines. An online RSS feed aggregator. Basically, you can publish an xml feed (Blogger does so automatically) and people using Bloglines can automatically see when you create a new post. You can also set up a profile and username to automatically list your blogroll (as you can see to the right). I do all my blog reading from Bloglines these days. Much easier than clicking around searching for new posts from my favorite sites.

Pete Gillen has resigned after seven seasons as Virginia's men's basketball head coach.

Pete was well liked upon his arrival, and just about everybody (including me) was happy with the hire. But his overall record, ACC record, and current state of the program left much to be desired.

Pressure to win at college basketball and football is intense, and expectations are frequently so high as to be delusional. For example, this College Football News Q&A. Ten active college football head coaches have won national championships, three of them more than once. Of course, woe be the other seven! Some Michigan fans want Lloyd Carr fired, though all he has done is win a national championship, go to consecutive Rose Bowls, and win 95 games in ten years. Bob Stoops arrived at Oklahoma when they hadn't had a winning season in six years. After a 7-5 first year, he has won sixty games in five years and a national championship. (Many college teams don't even play sixty games in five years.) Two of his seven losses in those five years came to national champions. And some guy has the gall to call him "overrated"!

The pressure to win is unreasonable at many places. But Virginia was not one of them. Finishing last in the ACC this year with only one NCAA tourney appearance in seven years is clearly unacceptable.

What are reasonable expectations for Virginia basketball? How do they compare to other schools? To answer these questions, I'd like to subjectively explore what factors influence basketball success, and see how well off Virginia is.

In rough order of acsending importance...

1) Academics. A double edged sword. Impressive academics can either attract or dissuade top recruits. The best recruits often aren't the best students, on the other hand many good players realize the value of a degree after their playing days are over. Virginia's academics are at least on par with UNC, Kansas, Duke, Wake, Stanford, Georgia Tech, and many other top schools which have had no problem finding basketball success. I could delve deep into this, but I believe ultimately it is not a big factor.

2) History / Reputation. Kentucky. UNC. Duke. Kansas. Indiana. Connecticut. All of these schools have tremendous basketball reputations. And well deserved ones. Each school has won multiple national titles and are among the winningest programs ever. UCONN is a bit of a newcomer though. While they went to the NCAAs regularly in the 50s and 60s, the Huskies suffered through the 70s and early 80s. They went through six straight losing seasons before current coach Jim Calhoun came on board. Louisville is a program that also won a national title before enduring hard times recently. However the Cardinals have also rebuilt themselves into a national contender with former Kentucky coach Rick Pitino.

While the history and basketball reputation of a school does tend to reinforce itself, it can be built or rebuilt in a relatively short period of time, say ten to fifteen years. Short term success can come quickly, in as little as two or three years with the right coach.

Virginia does not currently have a basketball reputation, and outside of a twenty year period hasn't had much history. The school had a reputation for hard nosed defense and hustle (1976-1995), occasional top recruits and several top 10 rankings. We had the second most wins in the ACC in the 80s That reputation has been dismantled in the past ten years, but I believe it could be restored as it has been at other schools.

3) Facilities. Show that you are dedicated to athletics, and people take note. Players generally go to schools with better athletic support.

University Hall was one of the smaller and more run down facilities in the ACC, to the point where it may have been affecting recruiting. The John Paul Jones Arena is being built. (Live webcam of the construction.) The new facility will increase the number of seats by over 50%, and replace the aging and ugly UHall. This could be a big selling point to recruits, an arena which is second to none in the ACC if not the nation. Maryland and NC State have both built new arenas recently. They were reflections of each school's commitment to basketball rather than a statement on the success of their teams.

4) League / Competition. Outside of six or seven major conferences it is a good deal harder to win a national championship. UNLV and Marquette are exceptions, but basically no other schools from a mid-level conference in recent memory. Utah, Memphis, and Indiana State have made the finals in the past thirty years, while they have successful programs, essentially they were one year wonders.

Virginia is in the best league for basketball. Not a problem as far as reputation goes, but it does increase the level of competition.

5) Recruiting. Pulling in the best players in is obviously crucial to success. A coaching staff must evaulate, accrue, and develop talent better than their opponents. This factor is affected by each other factor, but the most important factor is the coaches. Only they can offer scholarships, watch the players, evaluate the talent, and obviously coach them to get the best out of it.

The Wahoos have had good recruiting in the past, though the past three or four years have not been kind. I believe this shows that the primary factor holding back recruiting was the coaching staff. Gillen had a large amount of player turnover caused largely by poor evaluation and development of talent, and poor behavior by a few of those players which resulted in suspensions or transfers.

6) Coaching. The best career coaches persevere through short term adversity and achieve very long tenures where their success can feed back on itself by attracting better talent and more investment of capital into the program. See Duke's Coach K, UNC's Dean Smith, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, UConn's Jim Calhoun, etc. There are some coaches who have had more nomadic careers, but they still usually spend at least five years at a stop. See Texas' Rick Barnes, Kentucky's Tubby Smith, Rick Majerus, Rick Pitino. Maryland's Gary Williams used to be the second type, but now that he is at his alma mater he likely will stay for life.

The quality of coaching seems to be the most important factor in the success of a basketball program. How to choose, attract or cultivate a top coach to the school is a different subject that I may address in a future long winded post.

Obviously this leads to the current coaching search.


Based on these factors, realistic long term expectations at Virginia could be very high. While our basketball reputation is not the highest, the past thirty years were better than most believe. And history can be made, not simply remembered. Every other factor is positioned for success.

One can say the same thing about several other ACC schools. With continued success, Georgia Tech, Wake, Maryland, or even NC State could position themselves to join UNC and Duke in the top tier. While Virginia is as good or even better in some factors than these schools, all four have better basketball programs and short term prognosis.

All of which heightens the importance of the coaching search. Virginia is in danger of stagnating behind these programs for too long. Already many have forgotten about the two final fours, the top ten 1995 team, or the significant success in the 80s and early 90s. How many people know that Jeff Jones had a winning record over Duke in his first six years (during which they won a national title, and were runners up in 1994), and that Pete Gillen started out with a 6-4 record against UNC even including his woefully undermanned first team?

It is critical that the basketball team be righted. It cannot be allowed to go much longer without postseason success, or Virginia may be unfairly remembered as a football school.

I believe that given all the factors above, there is no reason Virginia cannot compete with or even surpass the basketball success of most teams in the ACC. The only piece of the puzzle that remains is a great coach.

Will potential hires see a school in the toughest league that hasn't won an NCAA tourney game in ten years... or a school with great academics that will have a big new arena in the most prestigious league in the nation that is showing unprecedented commitment to its basketball program? Short term expectations would be low, and long term support would be high for someone willing to make a career in Charlottesville.

I can only hope that a talented, dedicated coach sees the same things I do.

With a losing record this year, last in the conference, after three straight years of losing ACC records, it is time for Virginia basketball head coach Pete Gillen to go. The Sabre had a good autopsy of the season (subscribers only) that blamed lousy leadership (coach and captains), missing players (Clark's grades, JR's finger, Devin's ankle, Sean's shoulder, Adrian's injury), and a confidence destroying loss to Miami at home. Earlier I detailed the long term reasons it came to this.

The requirements for the next Virginia coach are: 1) uphold the integrity and academic standing of the University, 2) rebuild the program into a competitive, winning ACC club, and 3) use the reputation of the University and the impressive new facilities at the soon to be completed John Paul Jones Arena to build the Virginia basketball program to where it regularly competes for ACC and national titles. (There's no reason #3 can't happen, but because of the length of this post already, I'll leave that for another time.)

Who will be the next coach? There isn't an obvious choice, but a lot of surprising names have come up. (I should first say that every name in that article I heard on The Sabre first.)

Tubby Smith, coach at Kentucky, is one. Someone on thesabre.com's basketball board thinks Tubby is a possibility since he has coached in Virginia before, is from Maryland, and his wife is from Virginia. But his scenario is VERY farfetched. As much crap as Tubby gets from the fans in Kentucky, he still has led them to a national championship, a current top 5 ranking and probably an SEC championship this year. Cooler heads will prevail in the bluegrass state, and no matter what it takes, they will keep him. He's at a plum job, Virginia can't beat Kentucky in history, money, or recruiting, even with the new arena. Odds on Tubby being the next UVa coach: 40-1.

The other surprising big name that has come up is Rick Barnes. He has led Clemson and Texas to top ten status, both incredible feats at primarily football schools. His first team at Clemson was widely expected to be the worst team in ACC history. It won six ACC games and I believe narrowly missed an NIT bid. A few years later he had Clemson ranked #3 in the nation, and lost in overtime in the sweet 16 to a very good Minnesota squad. His Texas teams regularly have won 20+ games.

In short, the guy can coach. I would be ecstatic with Barnes under one condition: that he would be here for the long haul. He was at Providence for five years, then Clemson for four years, now Texas for seven years.

The irony of the situation is that while still at Providence, he wanted to come to Virginia in 1990. But he backed out after initially accepting the job. Former Providence AD (and then Big East comissioner) Dave Gavitt told him he would get a reputation for job hopping. If he had come in 1990, would he still be here? It had broken his and his wife's hearts to say no to Virginia, does he feel bad about wronging us once? Does he feel he should atone? Is Virginia a place where he could stay long term, with a new challenge for him and a new arena where he might (hyperbole thrusters on) build a new dynasty?

Virginia would have to pay through the nose to get him away from Texas, where he has built a top program but is still a much lower priority than football. There is some smoke surrounding his name. Odds on Barnes: 8-1.

The Phoenix Suns' Marc Iavaroni. A former Virginia player who has had a long stint in the NBA as a coach. He came real close to NBA head coaching positions last year. Nobody knows if he'd be interested in coming back to college, even if it is his alma mater. A wild card. Odds: 25-1.

Mike Montgomery just left Stanford for the NBA. He was involved in 1990 and was the runner up to Barnes before he backed out and the job was given to Jeff Jones. He built a tremendous program at Stanford and is having a hard time his first year in the NBA. Yet another big name canidate I would be really happy with, but the timing is off. We can't match NBA money, and he probably won't throw in the towel after one year, no matter how bad the experience. Odds: 60-1.

George Washington coach Karl Hobbs. He just signed a four year contract extension. He wouldn't have done that if he wanted the Virginia job. Odds: 100-1.

ODU coach Jeff Capel. He's too young, the only reason Jones got the job at his age was because he was already an assistant and an alum. Odds: 80-1.

Notre Dame's Mike Brey. Hasn't done much at Notre Dame. Odds: 30-1.

Depaul's Dave Leitao. I know little about him, but apparently he has rebuilt Depaul into a hustling, competitive team. Odds: ??? 25-1?

Wichita State's Mark Turgeon. It's a sign of how uncertain the search is that he is even mentioned. Looks to be a young, good, up and coming coach, but he has zero ties to the ACC and a short career. Odds: 50-1.

Gonzaga's Mark Few. Zero chance.

South Carolina's Dave Odom. Former Wake coach and Virginia assistant. Terry Holland wanted him to be given the job when he left, but couldn't get any assurance from then AD Jim Copeland (understandably, since Odom's head coaching career to that point consisted of a losing record at East Carolina). Dave left in 89 for Wake and has had a very successful career. A remote possibility, but someone I would be happy with. Odds: 20-1.


A new coach would get 2-3 years of low expectations, then would have a lot of pressure to achieve. Not as high as Kentucky, but NCAAs every year along with a deep run every 3 years. There is no clear favorite, not even a most likely candidate.

What does the future hold for Virginia? Are Tubby and Barnes leveraging the situation to get better deals where they are? Is a young, unknown coach looking to step up to the challenge and revive, in my opinion, a sleeping giant in the ACC?