Virginia's 2006 season is beset by question marks. Now on a bit of a downswing, the largest question for this season is if another winning record and a bowl are in the cards. This team is the weakest since Al Groh's first season (2001). Groh's best team was only two years ago, and only eight players from that 2004 two-deep remain (an only three of them started in 2004). It is even hard to recognize this team as the same one from 2005. With significant player (and coaching staff) turnover, Groh's recruiting and coaching will be put to the test this year.
Outlook
After a mostly mediocre 2005, Virginia lost a lot of experience and talent. It is unlikely that the 2006 team will be as good even as that average 2005 team. The schedule is not overwhelming, especially early. A 9-0 start isn't out of the question, but unfortunately neither is 4-5. The last three games are brutal, so the Hoos had better have a winning season sewn up by the time they visit Tallahassee.
Significant questions remain on both sides of the ball, and especially on the defensive front seven. There is little depth or experience anywhere but the secondary. The offense has talent but is greener than grass.
The question marks and losses loom too large to be ignored. Ultimately I believe this team will prove to be half-a-notch below last year's version, and that will show in the results.
Prediction: 6-6.
2005 Review
With a talented but somewhat disappointing 2004 team behind it, 2005 looked to still be a solid team. Unfortunately in the first five games Virginia turned in rather lackluster performances. We struggled to put away an underrated Western Michigan, and looked uninspired against bad Syracuse and Duke teams. Lost two tough away games at Maryland and Boston College though the team's play improved. Following that came an unbeleiveable upset of (in retrospect, overrated) #4 Florida State. Marques Hagans played lights out and absolutely willed the team to a win (as he had against Syracuse). However, he hurt his hip and was ineffective in a loss to UNC the next week. Wins over Temple and Georgia Tech, followed by losses to Virginia Tech and Miami finished the season. Hagans again put the team on his shoulders, winning MVP honors in the bowl win against Minnesota.
Despite the winning record and defeats of FSU, Georgia Tech, and Minnesota, this was a troubling season. The team was obviously much worse than the 2004 edition. Hagans was solely responsible for three of the wins, and the team might have gone 4-7 without him. Three of the opponents were among the worst teams in the nation. Only one loss was close, and there was an embarrasing drubbing by Virginia Tech. The defense was wobbly, and the rushing offense tepid (Wali Lundy's injury played a part). The team was so reliant on Hagans that no backup quarterback played, even when Marques was obviously hobbled against UNC.
The bright spots were team MVP Hagans, WR Deyon Williams' taking a step forward late in the year, LB Kai Parham holding the defense together, and Marcus Hamilton anchoring one side of the secondary.
Given the somewhat shaky condition of last year's team, and higher than average player turnover, the 2006 edition of Virginia Football makes some people (me) nervous.
Offense
The offense starts a lot of talented if not experienced players. Only two returning players have started a full season: true sophmore guard Branden Albert, and senior wide receiver Deyon Williams (who will miss several weeks with a stress fracture). The true measure of this unit will be in how well the inexperienced players step up now that it is their time.
At quarterback, senior Christian Olsen takes the reins. He has decent size, accuracy, and strength. But this season will be his first real game action. He needs to adapt to the speed and unpredictability of the game, and quickly. I don't expect a MVP statistics from him, but there is enough offensive line and skill position talent to provide a solid structure for him have a quality season. He had better come through, because his backups have even less experience and inspire less confidence. Junior Kevin Mccabe had a tough time beating out freshman Jameel Sewell for the backup spot.
Groh's starting lineups have been very flexible, frequently utilizing two tight ends or three receivers instead of a fullback. I expect the one-back set to become even more common this year. Senior Jason Snelling has moved from fullback to tailback and will start. Snelling had a great freshman year before redshirting due to a still undisclosed medical condition (migraines?). He has been up and down in playing time due to this condition and other injuries. When he has been able to play he has been very impressive. He has lost weight to gain quickness, and probably has the best combination of power and pass catching ability since Terry Kirby in 1992. If he can remain healthy, a 1,500 yard combined rushing and receiving season would surprise no one. His backups include speedy but inconsistent senior Michael Johnson, and sophmore Cedric Peerman. Both are capable of making big plays, but frankly I'm hoping Jason can keep it together all year.
At wideout, the aforementioned Deyon Williams would be an all-ACC candidate had he not suffered a stress fracture in the preseason. Right now the hope is that he will be back by October. He has the size, body type, and speed to be a great wideout, but we will have to wait. Fontel Mines is a big receiver who will have to step it up in Deyon's absence. While he's a good one, he's not on any all conference lists. The depth at receiver is as good as it has been since 1998 if not 1995. Emmanuel Byers, Kevin Ogletree, Andrew Pearman, and Maurice Covington are all talented but relatively unproven players. Though Deyon will be missed, this was an area where an injury was not disastrous.
The tight ends continue to be a major strength. Heath Miller and Patrick Estes were replaced by Tom Santi and Jonathan Stupar last year. They didn't make anyone forget Heath, but they both came through with solid years. They should only be better with experience.
The offensive line lost three long time starters. The returnees are quality linemen, but there is not much experience or depth. Alberts, Eugene Monroe, Jordy Lipsey, Ian-Yates Cunningham, and Marshall Ausberry will be the starters. If Lipsey can maintain his weight and strength at center, and the unit remains injury free, they ought to be good. However, the backups are mostly unproven seniors and green youngsters.
Overall the offense should be above average. It is quite inexperienced and thin though. If Olsen provides steady leadership and the injury bug stays away for once it could surprise people.
Defense
Brennan Schmidt and his record 51 starts are no longer with the team. His replacement on the defensive line is Jeffrey Fitzgerald, a redshirt freshman with zero career starts. That pretty much sums up the front seven which has gone from mostly juniors and seniors to a mixed bag of underclassmen, only three of whom started last season. Chris Long is a strength at the other end (though I think he was a little overrated at the end of last season), and backup Keenan Carter returns at nose tackle though Allen Billyk may supplant him there.
Clint Simtim is the returning experienced leader at linebacker, and he is only a sophmore. Again, this shows the youth and depth problems of the front seven. Simtim is impressively athletic, but he may be the only linebacker on the roster you could say that about. Jermaine Dias is another returner with a handful of starts at the other outside spot. The inside linebackers are new and must stay healthy for the sake of the defense. Jon Copper and Antonio Appleby have some experience but are getting a baptism by fire by being thrown into the starting lineup. The backup linebackers are even less experienced, so this is a thin group.
Good news for once: the secondary is the strength of the defense, if not the team. There was quality and depth even before Nate Lyles and Tony Franklin returned from injury and suspension, respectively. Add the best player on the team, cornerback Marcus Hamilton, and you have a secondary on par with any in the ACC.
Lyles and Franklin will likely start at safety, though Jamaal Jackson and Byron Glaspy won't give up the spots so easily. Hamilton will also start and push for all-ACC recognition. Several players with a mix of experience and talent could pair with him at the other corner. Junior Chris Gorham will get the first crack as a starter, while sophmores Chris Cook and Mike Brown will snap at his heels for the position. Redshirt freshman Vic Hall is a tremendous athlete who will be hard to keep off the field despite the depth.
Back to reality. When eight of the top eleven tacklers on the front seven are gone, you have depth problems on defense. The secondary is strong, but will anyone have to throw against us? The only time I can remember the defensive line weaker was in 2002, when Schmidt and future pros Andrew Hoffman and Chris Canty were thrown into the fire. One can only hope that this unit turns out as well. Still, the 2002 defense was not very good until midseason when Willie Davis and Rich Bedesem were inserted into the lineup. This roster does not seem to have two talented, instinctive players waiting for their chance to impress.
Overall, the defense is a big question mark. The 2005 defense wasn't particularly good, but Groh used enough smoke and mirrors to keep opposing scores down. His coaching skills will be put to the test again this year. He must figure out a way to stop the run and keep his offense on the field to reduce the opponent's scoring chances.
Special Teams
New kickers after Kurt Smith and Connor Hughes left. They were both spectacularly good at their jobs and will be missed. Chris Gould switches from punter to kicker, and Ryan Weigand will punt. The return game will continue to be good, but the kicking game is a question mark.
Schedule
Divide the year into three mini seasons. In the first five games we will learn a lot about the team whether it wins or loses. Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech are tough road games, while Wyoming, Western Michigan, and Duke should be wins. Anything less than 3-2 would be disastrous. But the record is less important than how the team plays. Five wins, and then finding out that the Panthers and Yellow Jackets aren't very good would tell us little. Three wins with two losses against obviously improved teams would not be the end of the world.
The midseason is make or break for the Hoos. At East Carolina will not be easy. Three home games against Maryland, UNC, and N.C. State round out October. If there is to be any likelihood of a bowl, they must win three if not all four of these games. None of these teams are overpowering, but neither can they be even lightly penciled in as wins. These games are crucial for total wins as well as standings in the ACC. Coming out of October with seven wins is almost required for there to be a bowl.
November is brutal, with games against the top three teams in the ACC. Florida State will be gunning for revenge after last year's upset. Virginia Tech in Blacksburg is always daunting. The biggest chance for a win comes in the middle against Miami at home. Miami will be playing its fourth away game in five weeks and may not be focused. The Hoos will have a week off beforehand. While we don't know enough about the team yet to say "upset special", check back with me in November.
